SparkToro just confirmed what operators have been quietly noticing: two-thirds of Google searches today end without a click. Ahrefs data shows organic traffic has declined across most sites over the last 12 to 18 months.
Your attribution model still doesn't account for any of this.
Last-click pays whoever touched the sale last. That's usually a coupon site. The editorial publisher who built the case for buying, the comparison article the customer read twice before converting, the creator who introduced the brand cold, they get nothing. So programs stop investing in them.
The result: programs that look efficient and stop growing.
I've watched this happen on programs we've taken over. Strong CPA on paper. Partner mix that's 80% coupon and cashback. Zero new customer growth because nobody's doing acquisition work.
Three things we change immediately:
Pull new-customer rate by partner, not just revenue. Top-funnel partners almost always over-index on new buyers. That's where the real value is hiding.
Check assisted conversions in your attribution platform. A partner who appears in every path but never closes last is more valuable than your model is telling you.
Move high-performing content partners to hybrid deals. Flat fee plus performance. Pay for the reach and the result.
Last-click isn't wrong. Running your entire program on it is.
Want to scale your affiliate program? Book a free strategy call here.
Talk soon,
Fred